Retailers await Rowling as Brexit hits footfall

Booksellers are hoping that the release of Harry Potter and the Cursed Child later this month will offset the negative impact economic uncertainty has had on footfall following the Brexit vote.

Figures from Springboard Research show that high street footfall nationwide was down 4.3% year on year from Friday 24th June to Sunday 3rd July, suggesting the referendum result had hit town centre visitor numbers. Figures from BDO’s high street sales tracker also revealed today (8th July) that like-for-like retail sales fell by -3.6% in the month of June. However, Nielsen BookScan figures show book sales are holding up relatively well, up 8.4% in value terms this week to £25.06m, and up 6.8% in value terms year on year. Volume, meanwhile, was also up: by 10.1% week on week (to 3.2m), and 1.9% year on year.

Nevertheless, Rosamund de la Hey, president of the Booksellers Association, called upon the government to provide a “clear roadmap” following the Leave vote in order to stabilise consumer confidence—and spending. She also urged the industry to “work together” in the next few months to help bolster the market. “At this stage, none of us can know how Brexit negotiations will unfold, but it is important that as an industry we work together to sustain consumer confidence and ensure a great autumn and Christmas [in terms of ] sales of books,” she said.

“Our association is asking the UK government for greater clarity and a clear roadmap. Although there is considerable uncertainty, there are numerous reasons to be positive: we have just enjoyed a hugely successful Independent Bookshop Week and bookshops up and down the country will shortly begin [selling] Harry Potter and the Cursed Child.”

Peter Donaldson of the Red Lion Bookshop in Colchester said the atmosphere had been subdued since the referendum. “We have certainly seen a pretty quiet week in terms of footfall and sales,” he said. “Whether it is Brexit, or the football, or both...I think the shock of Brexit certainly has a lot of people wandering around in a daze, unable to believe it. Quite a few customers who would usually come into the shop have not been in for days. I think inevitably Brexit will have an impact on the high street, as uncertainty always does.”

Mike Sansbury, manager of The Grove Bookshop in Ilkley, said the weekend after the referendum saw a “very strange” atmosphere in the West Yorkshire town. However, he too speculated that big book releases, such as . . . the Cursed Child, may offset any sales downfall. “The day after the referendum, and that weekend, we did feel a drop,” he said. “There was a very strange atmosphere in the town in general and people were quite quiet. The week carried on that way but towards the end of last weekend things picked up again. I think certainly the first weekend, the whole country was in shock. There is a lot of uncertainty around at the moment and there will be until we see how things start to pan out.”

He added that he “hoped” the release of the Harry Potter playscript would help boost sales. “The Cursed Child will certainly help,” he said. “Nationally it will be a big thing.” The “eighth Harry Potter story”—the script of stage play “Harry Potter and the Cursed Child Parts I and II” by J K Rowling, Jack Thorne and John Tiffany—continues the tale of Harry, Ron and Hermione, some 19 years after the end of the seventh novel. It is due for release at 00.01 GMT on 31st July.

Waterstones m.d. James Daunt is hoping the book will boost the chain in the wake of the referendum result, which has already seen the value of sterling hit a 31-year low. “Any analysis over such a short period is to be treated with caution, if not considered altogether meaningless,” Daunt said. “This all said, the political turmoil is certain to be depressing sales. I prefer to take stock in a month or so. I am pessimistic but the guardian angel of my bookselling career may yet prove me wrong—let’s hope so!”

Other booksellers agreed it was too soon to measure the impact of Brexit. Marie Moser, owner of The Edinburgh Bookshop, said: “There is no way of knowing if it has yet had an impact on sales. It is a busy week for us anyway in the shops because it is just before [school]children break up for summer. We are staying calm and carrying on as normal, but watching events very carefully.”

Dan Lewis, marketing, events and PR manager at Stanfords, said: “It seems far too early for anyone to speak with clarity when politicians themselves are unsure of what is happening now, or what may happen in the near and distant future. For now, we’re continuing with business as usual and waiting for things to become a little calmer and clearer before we work toward any response— large or small.”

Meanwhile, Ron Johns—the owner of four bookshops in Cornwall, including the recently opened Padstow Bookseller—shed light on how Brexit was affecting day-to-day customer service. “All of my staff bar one voted to stay in the EU but Cornwall, which gets a lot of money in EU aid, voted to Leave, which is completely bonkers,” he said. “I fear the long-term effect won’t be good for the county or the country. But we are shopkeepers, we do not have politics, so when people try to draw us into conversation, we have to do our best not to get too involved. In the short term I see no problem but I do think long-term it will affect the county.”

Meanwhile, listed companies such as W H Smith have seen their share price fall. While the company would not comment on what plans it was putting in place following the decision to leave, retail analyst Nick Bubb said the retailer’s successful Travel arm could be hit. “It is clear that the feeble UK economic recovery has been slowing anyway in recent months and, given the general shock to consumer confidence from the Brexit vote and the impact on the London jobs and housing market in particular, the City has moved quickly in the risk of a recession and sustained sterling weakness,” he said.

“All retailers have been marked down to some degree since Thursday. W H Smith is an interesting case. The worry is the outlook for passenger numbers in the lucrative airport business—in its Travel division—given the risk that there will now be fewer holidays taken abroad, on top of the widespread disruption this summer from the French air-traffic controllers’ strike.”

Other considerations for retailers include a potential impact on student numbers, especially those from Europe. While universities and science minister Jo Johnson has moved to calm fears about the impact of Brexit on the Higher Education sector, stating there will be no immediate changes for EU students studying in the UK, Conservative Party leadership candidate Theresa May has refused to guarantee EU citizens’ right to remain in the UK, and has been accused of using their status as a “bargaining chip” in the forthcoming Brexit negotiations.

Peter Gray, c.e.o. of John Smith’s, called on the government to reaffirm its “total commitment to the education sector and to supporting student success” in the wake of the news. “We cannot have the situation of students having done their A-Levels who are now questioning whether they should go to university because of uncertainty,” he told The Bookseller. A lack of clarity around EU-administered research funding could cause vital investment decisions to be delayed too, he warned.

On a more positive note, Gray said the current upheaval could be an “opportunity” to enshrine more practical support for students in the education White Paper, “including the provision of their learning resources as part of their fees”.

The future of the European Commission’s anti-trust investigation into how Amazon distributes e-books, and its relationships with publishers, launched last June after lobbying from the BA, is also now in doubt. De la Hey said: “The BA will continue to lobby the competition authorities to act on our complaint to the EC concerning our allegations of anti-competitive practices in our book market. We have received an assurance from the competition authorities in Brussels that Brexit will make no difference to how our complaint is treated. However, in light of the Brexit vote, we are also exploring how we might be able to progress our case nationally, away from Brussels.”