Nightmare before Christmas

"It’s a nightmare.” More than one publisher said that to me this week when—prompted by the accounts of acute petrol pump shortages—I approached a few people to ask again how they were faring with book supply issues as we approach the pre-Christmas season.

I was wondering whether, in our recent news reports online, we had been tempted to overstate the problems facing the industry as we come into the busiest time of the year. It seems not—though some say the fuel shortage isn’t causing any immediate problem (other than yet more delivery surcharges, which is of course a problem), the general uncertainty over arrival times for books being shipped internationally, coupled with the well-publicised shortage of HGV drivers and the current delays on reprints, means everyone seems to be expecting there to be issues affecting the industry this year when the Christmas surge fully hits in the next few weeks.

With fears that Christmas trees, turkeys and maybe presents too will all be hard to obtain nearer to December, it seems shoppers could be stocking up earlier than is usually the pattern

Or perhaps the Christmas buyers are already out in the shops? With fears that Christmas trees, turkeys and maybe presents too will all be hard to obtain nearer to December, it seems shoppers could be stocking up earlier than is usually the pattern, and even ahead of the booksellers’ Christmas promotions—certainly the book sales figures are very healthy for the time of year. Retailers too are reportedly placing robust early orders, sacrificing cashflow down the line to ensure they have safely obtained the stock levels now that they are going to need closer to Christmas, when getting replenishments may be harder. This year it seems the book market may be less responsive to buyers’ tastes, with retailers more inclined to second-guess the Christmas market ahead of time and take a punt early on the books that will be popular—because obtaining reprints at speed is now such a difficult business (eight to 10 weeks is reportedly being quoted for some illustrated non-fiction titles). “Some books WILL go out of stock this year,” one publisher told me. “It’ll be a case of, when they’re gone, they’re gone till January.”

Equity will be important, with indies understandably concerned that stock is kept available to them and not all diverted to fulfil orders from the biggest players if numbers run low; equally important will be honest communication between industry players, as the problems facing us this autumn affect everyone.

What happily remains true is that the market for books is incredibly buoyant, that people want to read and they want to buy. Some books may miss out; but will problems with frontlist supply mean opportunities for well-presented backlist? It’s very unlikely to be a poor Christmas season, though perhaps not quite the brilliant one we might have had without the combination of Brexit, Covid and a paper and fuel crisis. Certainly the experience we have all gained over the past 18 months in dealing with uncertainty is going to be called on yet again—not least for hard-worked sales and production staff currently tearing their hair out in publishing houses.