Trade searches for Brexit silver linings

As Britain officially leaves the European Union at 11 p.m. tonight (Friday 31st January) and embarks on an 11-month transition period, a number of trade figures say this new era could usher in opportunities and provide some economic and political certainty. 

The trade supported Remain overwhelmingly in the June 2016 referendum, and many in the industry contacted by The Bookseller struggled to find a positive to the divorce. But there is some hope, with the certainty of Brexit instilling greater consumer confidence, and giving the government the chance to harness the UK’s export potential, according to some trade figures. 

Publishers Association c.e.o. Stephen Lotinga said: “Ministers have the chance to create a serious competitive advantage for publishers and make the UK the best place to operate an IP-rich business, through reductions in VAT on digital products, tax incentives for R&D, and investment in research and education. The government should use its new-found freedom to become a global champion of ‘gold standard’ IP rights and ensure other countries live up to their commitments on copyright.”

Leaving the EU could also provide a boost to the retail landscape, according to wholesalers and distributors. Bertrams c.e.o. Raj Patel noted that there would be challenges around cross-border transactions, exchange rates, international trade and copyright infringement, but he also said the UK books market could grow if the government focused on fiscal policy and community regeneration schemes to help the high street. With greater consumer confidence “the UK books market should grow 2%–4% per annum over the next five years, dominated by print, a flat digital offer and growing audio demand,” said Patel. 

An escape route
Nigel Wyman, head of business development (UK) at Gardners, added: “Any sort of political certainty, no matter your view on Brexit, is a good thing. It enables people to plan and feel like progress is being made. This, in my view, will have a positive effect on the retail landscape. Books have always been the go-to companion in times of unease; [they] enable people to remove themselves from reality.”

Perhaps the sterner test will come in December at the end of the transition agreement. Agent Lorella Belli said: “Until we know what businesses are expected to do specifically and what the new rules are, and where we stand with the EU, it is hard to tell how what will be lost can be recouped, and what opportunities might arise to mitigate the damage any kind of Brexit is bound to inflict.”

Humfrey Hunter, publisher at Silvertail Books, said Brexit will break the “sense of paralysis”, adding: “I completely understand why people are scared, because there’s so much uncertainty. But if you come from a place where you accept that was what people voted for, and therefore it’s what has to happen, we can move into normal territory after that.” He added that “there’s no doubt our economy is going to be stronger because the Conservatives won the election rather than Labour”.

HarperCollins c.e.o. Charlie Redmayne said the industry’s top priority must be retaining the “gold standard copyright regime”, as well as keeping a close eye on IP issues and data protection rules and regulations, with the transitional arrangements yet to be agreed. He said “the mandate the government received in the December election gives it a strong basis from which to negotiate with Europe and other potential trading partners”.

And Other Stories founder Stefan Tobler said VAT on e-books was up for discussion, “offering a chink of light”, while Diane Banks, c.e.o. of Northbank Talent Management, said Brexit could provide an opportunity for smaller businesses “whose voices have found it difficult to be heard in a Brussels dominated by lobbyists for big business”.

The immediate impact of Brexit would be “fairly benign”, according to PFD c.e.o. Caroline Michel, who said US publishers may play more of an active role in English-language European markets in the long-term. Recent political upheaval has also created fertile ground for great writing, and both Michel and Waterstones’ chief operating officer Kate Skipper praised the work coming through. Michel said: “As a result of three years of uncertainty, passion and rage, writers both of fiction and non-fiction have dug deeper and some of the proposals, thinking, and writing we are seeing are some of the best we have ever seen.”

Skipper added: “There are few signs of Brexit impacting positively on the UK retail industry, however the publishing schedule for the year ahead cheers our spirits. The publishing industry is remarkably adept at finding books that tap into the issues of the day, so I expect the books on our tables to remain vibrant, thought-provoking and full of wonderful ways to escape.”