Books 'to outperform retail market this Christmas'

Despite the challenges to the high street and potential knocks to consumer confidence amid the pre-Brexit turmoil, books are likely to do better this Christmas than other retail industries, analysts say. Meanwhile, retailers are optimistic, praising a "strong" Christmas line-up.

Nielsen BookScan’s TCM figures suggest the festive season may be finely balanced: in the past four weeks (23rd September to 20th October) 13.9 million books were sold for £130.25m, 2.5% down in volume and 1.8% down in value against the same period in 2017. For the year to date, the print market is now just 0.25% ahead of 2017 in volume terms, and 1.6% ahead in value (for the period up to 20th October).

However, last autumn figures dragged behind before spiking in the week before Christmas, a surge which ensured the print book market maintained its run of value growth year on year—albeit by a slender 0.1%.

Douglas McCabe of Enders Analysis is hopeful that publishing will see a solid end to the year. "I would expect books will outperform a reasonable Christmas period for retail overall—neither blockbuster, nor disaster," he said. "Retail is having a difficult time, but it is also a mixed picture. Department stores and fashion has had a poor year, some supermarkets have had a better time. Books as a category have held up well."

McCabe identified key economic drivers for the Christmas market: "Slowdown in the property market, combined with uncertainty relating to Brexit (which is negative), partially offset by a reasonably healthy job market and marginally improved salary positions (a positive)."

He predicted: "On the basis of the above drivers, household spend should be reasonable and steady, but it will tend towards relatively low price-point items, and books have likely gained market share in this space. Second, the publishing programme is good quality, with a wide range of interesting looking books. There may not be an obvious blockbuster to anchor the Christmas season, but that can also be a good thing—a wide range of mid- to good-selling titles can make for a strong Christmas for bookshops, chain and independent."

Retailers also foresee a range Christmas. Waterstones buying director Kate Skipper said: "It’s a strong Christmas line-up so we’re feeling buoyed by this year’s publishing as we enter the final months of the year. Fiction is looking nicely robust, with excellent titles across the spectrum, including the big brands—such as Ian Rankin, Lee Child, C J Sansom, Robert Galbraith, George R R Martin etc—as well as an exciting range of books from emerging and literary authors. These include Normal People by Sally Rooney (pictured right), Unsheltered by Barbara Kingsolver, Melmoth by Sarah Perry, The Silence of the Girls by Pat Barker, Circe by Madeleine Miller and Milkman by Anna Burns."

Blackwell’s sales and marketing director Dean Drew echoed the importance of the offering’s breadth. "Publishing in general is strong, with some brilliant new titles out. History in particular looks strong, with titles from Max Hastings, Neil MacGregor and Peter Frankopan leading the way."

Marie Moser, owner of The Edinburgh Bookshop, agreed. "There is a really good, broad offering this year,” she said. “In most areas you can pick out strong titles."

A Sainsbury’s spokesperson said: "Our Christmas book offering recently launched in store, and we are starting to see strong sales come through. We expect Guinness World Records and David Walliams’ new book The Ice Monster, which launches in a few weeks, to top the book charts this Christmas." Brigitte Ricou-Bellan, director of books at Amazon UK, said: "We’ve seen growth across children’s and non-fiction books, in particular picture books like the Oi! series from Kes Grey and Jim Field, and biography and lifestyle titles such as Matt Haig’s Notes on a Nervous Planet. As we move towards Christmas, we expect food and drink titles to pick up steam, with standouts like [the books from] Deliciously Ella and BOSH!, and [vloggers Catherine Allinson and Kay Featherstone’s] Pinch of Nom."

No laughing matter
A couple of gaps in the market were identified. Nic Bottomley, BA president and co-owner of Bath-based indie bookseller Mr B’s Emporium of Reading Delights, said he didn’t "see a nature or travel writing title that is shouting out", while Susie Nicklin, owner of south London-based Dulwich Books, felt the offering was missing a funny bone. "There aren’t enough humorous books out this year," she said.

The owner of Nottingham’s Five Leaves Bookshop, Ross Bradshaw, said this year’s Man Booker winner, Burns’ Milkman, was a welcome relief after last year’s tricky sell, George Saunders’ Lincoln in the Bardo. "Milkman is selling much better than most of the recent Booker winners," he said. "I think people are interested in Anna Burns and the coverage there has been about her."

Many who spoke to The Bookseller said the current political and economic uncertainties were encouraging people to seek solace in reading. Moser pondered: "Maybe people are thinking, ‘I’m so bored with Brexit, I’m just going to crack on’. Therefore, it doesn’t necessarily mean a boom for business but it may be absolutely fine." Jo Coldwell, bookseller at Colchester’s Red Lion Books, said: "Books are more beautiful than ever and if anything, in these dark times people seek places of solace. We are a place to go in dark times."

Enders’ McCabe believes that promoting the experience of books and reading will be important to ensuring sales. He said: "I hope to see the big retailers doing some robust Christmas marketing to highlight the importance of books, the importance of reading, the value of browsing (the value of great bookshops), the pleasure of personal, thoughtful gifting, as well as the great titles on offer. If all the assumptions outlined above are to some degree right, then physical retailer marketing has a good chance of generating a good return on investment."

Blackwell’s was among the retailers emphasising the importance of hand-selling over the Christmas period. Drew said: "More than ever, we will be focusing on bookseller recommendations, both in shops and online. We also have recommended category favourites and not just the obvious choices. We will also be making more of our Books of the Year, which are voted for by our booksellers and announced in November."