Germany sees nine-month sales lift amid shift to online retail

Solid demand for printed books throughout the spring and summer supported by a strong list of new releases in the autumn is fuelling optimism for the festive season in Germany. Sales were up 3.9% across all channels in value for the nine months to end-September, and 0.9% in volume, according to figures from trade publication buchreport and Media Control.

What has many in the industry worried, though, is the fact that market dynamics are still predominantly driven by online shops. Bricks-and-mortar booksellers continue to be under pressure because wary customers have been slower to return to the high street than expected after Covid restrictions were lifted for those who are either fully vaccinated or have recovered. Thus, booksellers have a lot of catching up to do with sales for the year so far down 6.6% in value and an alarming 9.9% in volume.

But with more than two months to go until Christmas, and reports of increasing footfall, optimism for a pre-Christmas bonanza in the high street is rising. Many booksellers remain mindful of last year when what promised to be a very strong finish to the year was cut short by a second lockdown in mid-December due to a rise Covid-19 infections. However, with masks continuing to be mandatory inside shops and restaurants as well as on public transport, and more than two-thirds of the adult population fully vaccinated, a repeat of this scenario is not generally expected.

Instead there are other obstacles emerging that have the potential to severely disrupt the supply chain during the festive season. While Germany is not experiencing the freight and energy crises which is engulfing the UK, many in the industry are feeling the pinch of the global shortage of paper pulp and elements of book manufacture. Fear is rising that disruptions in the book production process could dampen the industry’s recovery process during the vital Christmas season.

Delays of 12 to 15 weeks are being cited in getting paper from suppliers. There are also noticeably rising prices for everything from paper — depending on the paper’s quality this summer saw prices going up between 15% and 20% — and bookbinding board to glue and special colours which may have a knock-on effect not only on getting new releases into the market in time but also on reprints of popular titles in the run-up to Christmas.

Many publishers are therefore urging booksellers to adapt their buying habits and order the Christmas titles they expect to do well and want to promote as soon as possible.