Global ranking: Record haul for publishing’s top 50

The industry's biggest companies have shrugged off a period relative stagnation and have begun to grow dramatically. That is one of the overriding trends of the Global Ranking of the Publishing Industry, the annual Livres Hebdo/Bookseller list of the industry’s biggest players.

The ranking, researched by Rüdiger Wischenbart Content & Consulting, shows the world's top 50 publishers earned €62.7bn in revenue in 2015, a record total for the list which has been yearly since 2008. That is an 8.1% rise on the previous year and 18.3% jump on 2013. These two growth spurts were following four economic crisis and digital-affected years where the top 50 publishers' revenue remained flat, hovering around the €53bn-€55bn range.   

The rebounding fortunes have been driven by the list’s upper echelons, in particular. The top 10 publishers generated revenue of €34.6bn for the year ending 31st December 2015, 55.2% of the overall top 50’s total of €62.7bn. It is both the top 10’s biggest tally—up 9.3% year on year and 25% against 2013—and its largest share of top 50 revenue since the list began in 2008. Publishers ranked 11-20th on the list had a shallower 7.1% rise against 2014, earning €13.2bn. The rest of the ranking—positions 21-50—totals were up almost 6% to €14.8bn.   

Part of the reason for the rise of the top 10 and 50 is methodological, with a drive beginning in 2011 to capture meaningful data and accurate revenue totals from publishers in Russia, Korea, Brazil and China. The Chinese publishers, in particular, have widened the scope, with five entering the ranking over the past three years, all of which feature in this year’s top 20: education powerhouses China South Publishing & Media Group and Phoenix Publishing & Media Group (in sixth and seventh place respectively); trade giant China Publishing Group (16th); China Education Publishing & Media (20th); and, new this year, Zhejiang Publishing United Group (17th), the country’s biggest children’s publisher.

It is not just the Chinese groups’ inclusion that augments the ranking, but the fact that they are continuing to expand. The Chinese publishers for which we have year-on-year comparisons generated around €7.4bn last year, a 12.9% rise, led by China South, which was up 21.6%, leapfrogging rival Phoenix.

While the performance of the Chinese groups impresses, it was also a good year for the British. Pearson tops the list as the biggest publisher on the planet for the eighth straight year, while four other UK-headquartered (or joint-headquartered) publishers make the list.

There are reasons to be cheerful for Pearson chief executive John Fallon, as his publisher tops the Global Ranking of the Publishing Industry for the eighth successive year.

Together, the British quintet generated the equivalent of €13.2bn, second only to US publishers’ total of €14.1bn (this includes portioning out the US/UK/Netherlands-based RELX Group’s €4.8bn equally to the three countries). UK publishers’ revenue jumped a combined 6.5% year on year, though this is slightly boosted by the currency conversion to Euros (see box below). Pearson and RELX remained first and third respectively, while OUP dropped two places to 21st. Informa maintained its 22nd spot and CUP climbed one rung, to 37th.

All five UK publishers in the list do the bulk of their business in the education, academic, professional and STM sectors. This is a common thread through the ranking, particularly near the summit. The top four publishers— which collectively earned €20.3bn, or about 30% of the top 50’s 2015 revenue—are broadly in those areas, as are seven of the top 10.

The biggest movements in the chart have been caused by consolidation. HarperCollins was up almost 30% (an extra €350m) in revenue and leapt seven places to 11th, as this was the first full year that the Harlequin Mills & Boon acquisition was included with HC’s figures.

The creation of Springer-Nature was the biggest merger of the year, with the STM supergroup the result of combining Holtzbrinck’s science division with Springer in a 53%/47% joint deal between the two German companies. Springer- Nature, therefore, is treated as one entity, adding to Springer’s previous totals, accounting for its six-place rise to 14th. As a consequence, trade division Holtzbrinck (which includes Pan Macmillan) dropped around 31% in revenue, and nine places, to 19th.

The ranking can only be compiled by using reliable data—the Chinese groups’ inclusion came only after verifiable figures were forthcoming. But difficulties arise with Western firms, too. Disney is undoubtedly the world’s biggest children’s publisher— and with its ownership of Marvel, one of the largest comics publishers— and it would probably sit somewhere in the middle of the top 10. But “the Mouse” doesn’t strip out publishing from the rest of its entertainment business. There is a similar problem with Italian comics giant Panini.

McGraw-Hill’s figures are less than straightforward, too. When the US education powerhouse was privatised by venture capital firm Apollo Global Management, its value was downgraded, with certain aspects of its financials not publicly available— accounting for its drop from ninth place to 18th. However, with Apollo contemplating a public offering, a recent proxy statement indicates that McGraw’s revenue would be similar to 2014’s €1.8bn. For this year’s chart information from Apollo’s official full-year report was retained; it will be adjusted accordingly in 2017.

The Global Ranking of the Publishing Industry is an initiative of Livres Hebdo (France), co-published by The Bookseller, BookDao (China), buchreport (Germany), Publishers Weekly (USA), and PublishNews (Brazil). It has been researched by Rüdiger Wischenbart Content and Consulting. © Livres Hebdo 2016. *2014 data not available, therefore 2013 data has been used.

Common currency: why Pearson is 4.5% up

One of the trickiest parts of the Global Ranking is ongoing consistency in a list which has publishers reporting in a variety of currencies. This year there are 10 different monetary units to contend with. from its inception the chart has been in Euros, as it is by far the most common unit, used by 21 of this year’s 50 publishers. For conversions from other currencies, a mid-market rate for the last trading day of a particular year is used. This is the best solution for historical comparisons, but niggles can arise when there are fluctuations in currency, which can be seen at the very top of this year’s list.

Pearson reports in GBP, and last year its 2015 results showed a slight drop of 2%, from £4.54bn to £4.49bn. but at the end of 2014, £1 was equal to €1.28, while at year-end 2015 it had risen to €1.35. This means Euro conversions in the current ranking flatter the publishers that report in GBP: in Pearson’s case, it posts a rise of 4.5% rather than its reported 2% decline. Yet it may hurt British publishers in next year’s post-Brexit chart: the pound is currently trading at €1.17.