Fiction trends in 2016: ‘Grip-lit’ here to stay

The appeal of the psychological thriller shows no sign of waning, according to publishers predicting the trends for 2016, following The Girl on the Train's ride to success in 2015.

“I don’t think it’s really going out on a limb to say that what Marian Keyes dubbed ‘grip-lit’ shows no sign of going away”, said Ursula Doyle, editor of new Little, Brown literary imprint, Fleet.

The sub-genre, represented by authors including Claire Mackintosh (I Let You Go - Sphere), Liane Moriarty (Little Lies - Penguin), debut author Renee Knight (Disclaimer – Doubleday) and Paula Hawkins (The Girl on the Train – Doubleday), places emphasis on the emotional states of characters, often written in first-person narrative to incorporate characters' “stream of consciousness”.

Quercus fiction publisher Stef Bierwerth noted that trends within film are only broadening the readership. "The beauty of this genre is that it can so brilliantly offer something for everyone - thriller fans as well as those of darker women’s fiction,” she said. "And it’s become such a trend in the film industry which again widens things to a whole new audience.”

Gillian Flynn’s Gone Girl (Weidenfeld & Nicolson) was adapted for the silver screen in October 2014, and the blockbuster for Hawkins’ The Girl on the Train, starring Emily Blunt as its “booze-bedraggled” protagonist, is currently in the making. The latter clocked up 20 consecutive weeks in original fiction’s number one spot: the longest run since Nielsen records began.

Joel Richardson, publisher for Bonnier imprint Twenty7 Books, predicted continued success of the sub-genre in hardback: “A really interesting thing there is that [The Girl on the Train] did so well in hardback, which caught a lot of people by surprise,” he said. "We’ve got Maestra coming out in hardback in March, which is a similar thing in that it’s a debut in that thriller genre. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were more publishers budgeting for the big hardback titles than they might have done going into last year.”

However, in spite of the popularity of such hits, whether unreliable narrators will prove so popular in 2016 is another question. "I’m sure there will still be lots of it,” said Richardson, "as people will be chasing what’s come before. I’d be surprised, if the next big thing was that - although I’m sure [books with unreliable narrators] will be in the charts."

Louise Cullen, editor for Corvus at Atlantic Books, is anticipating a "decreasing appetite for unreliable narrators in thrillers”. She said: "This year I think readers will seek out novels with characters that may be flawed, but offer a straight-up account of events.” Cullen also remarked on the increased clout of British and Irish talent in the crime and thriller market, which in the past felt dominated by American names. "I hope this trend continues in 2016,” she added.

Publishers believe readers have become "more ready" to embrace “flawed” characters who are darker and less likeable than traditional protagonists. Extending outside of the ‘thriller’ genre, citing Man Booker favourite for 2015 A Little Life (Picador) as one such example, Doyle said she was “encouraged” that many of these books featured protagonists who are "deeply flawed and sometimes very hard to like”. She said, while “classic story telling ability, great plotting and sympathetic characters never go out of fashion”, that “readers seem more ready to embrace the dark, the alienated, the damaged and the downright annoying than they have been previously”.

Bierwerth said that in 2016 psychological thriller readers “will want to be surprised in a different way”. Kate Mills, publishing director for Orion Fiction, agreed, saying she expected to see a “shift to books that subvert the genre” going into the summer.

Alessandro Gallenzi, m.d. at Alma Books, predicted “a continuing rise” of genre fiction, particularly in erotica and crime. But what “genre fiction" actually is has also been under scrutiny from a number of publishers, who are noticing increasingly blurred distinctions between genres as they continue to lend and borrow from one another, he said. 

Selina Walker, publisher for Arrow and Century, said: "I think for quite a long time we all thought how much more psychological suspense can the market take? And I do think there’s actually still quite a bit more to come. I don't think psychological suspense is quite dead yet.

"I also think it is interesting the way genres are merging in commercial fiction: almost all of them. You would often turn down a book because you weren’t quite sure what it was: is this crime, is this women’s fiction, what is it? And these days, particularly in psychological suspense, you have women’s fiction meets crime, a lot of women’s fiction has a murderer or a mystery in there, which really does drive the narrative, and I think we’re seeing a lot of that. A lot of women’s writers have some element of mystery or something that is held to account...the main character is at risk or vulnerable. That’s why psychological suspense is so popular I think." 

Kirsty Dunseath, publisher for W&N Fiction agreed: "I think we’ll continue to see novels that cross boundaries and genres - readers are eclectic, they don’t necessarily want to be pigeon-holed and in the end what will win is strong narrative and a well-imagined world.”

Based on such noticeable genre overlaps, Kimberley Young, publisher for HarperCollins Fiction, has gone so far as to say that it is her “big belief” that “women’s fiction doesn’t exist anymore”. She said this is chiefly because of the changing the landscape of women’s commercial fiction, which had resulted in differences in the discovery of new authors by readers. She said: "I think the shifting sands will continue in 2016. Readers aren't defining themselves as genre readers, genres are morphing and clashing and creating exciting stories that give readers thrilling new experiences. Readers are curious and diverse in their reading tastes – so as a publisher I need to be relentlessly curious and diverse in what I'm acquiring. Writers who break conventions, who challenge the reader – whether that be intellectually, emotionally or by playing with convention – are the authors I see leading the pack this year.”

The perception of women’s fiction as a genre is set to “continue to change and evolve” in 2016, according to Caroline Hogg, senior commissioning editor at Pan Macmillan, adding “women’s fiction is never just a light and fluffy distraction – it covers the full range of life experiences and emotions”.

Looking ahead to Jem Lester’s Shtum (Orion), Mills agreed that “emotionally-charged stories will be strong”, commenting: “There’s a reflective mood at the moment and readers really want to be made to feel something, whether it’s compassion, love, grief. It’s about the experience – how that books touches you”. 

Publisher for Picador, Paul Baggaley, is publishing a book “on the cusp of science fiction” in Julian Gough’s Connect, as well as "a brilliant lost noir crime classic", The Face on the Cutting-Room Floor by Cameron McCabe, reflecting, too, the trend for rediscovery of lost classics, he says. He added: “It’s wonderful to see the high street supporting our books so positively. I am personally excited by the idea of Picador pushing the boundaries of genre.”

Another trend to watch could be that science fiction is “enjoying a resurgence”, as according to Gillian Redfearn, publishing director for Gollancz, who has noticed sci-fi elements are creeping into thrillers. Its two lead titles are The Fireman by Joe Hill and The Hatching by Ezekiel Boone.

Walker, at Century and Arrow, picked up the same trend: "I’m always struck by how many young pople in the office now read science fiction these days,” she said. "I think this is an interesting area to watch. I would almost call it post-apocalyptic. It’s dyspoian meet thrillers really. So again I think those genres really are rubbing up against one another. 

"These dystopian novels are written on a very big visual scale – see how well The Martian did – and I think there will be more of those coming through,” she said.

Mills added that publishers will be keen to build on what was a strong year of historical fiction for 2015 and that high-concept fiction will be “key”. 

Surrounding the ongoing conversation around diversity within publishing, some publishers are also anticipating more books “ranging across race and religion" and "sexuality, too”. 

Richardson - describing the phenomenon of Hot Key author Juno Dawson who announced her transition in October - said: "We’ve published Sofia Khan is Not Obliged, which we pitched as a Muslim Bridget Jones, and that’s featured so much in the trade press, and the national press, into conversations about diversity in publishing. I wonder if a few more publishers will be looking out especially for that kind of thing, where maybe people in the past have been more conservative about it. It seems there’s a public appetite for it, so it will be interesting to see if that is reflected. It’s not really a genre but a new movement in that sense." 

"There are a lot of voices not currently being heard. I think we will hear more of them this year,” he added.

Read editors and publishers talking about non-fiction trends for 2016 here.