Nielsen projects double digit audio growth as digital defection swells in lockdown

Audiobook sales are expected to hit 25 million units for 2021, worth just under £200m, according to Nielsen’s Understanding the Audiobook Consumer report. It has projected a seventh year of double-digit volume growth for the audiobook sector, up an estimated 13% against 2020, with value expected to jump 14%. 

The report also found the consumer switch to digital audiobooks stepped up once again in 2021. Digital now accounts for 88% of the audiobooks listened to by consumers, up four percentage points against 2020. While 12% of consumers dabbled in both physical and digital, 76% exclusively listened to digital and just 12% were solely committed to physical audiobooks. The proportion of consumers listening to digital exclusively has risen dramatically since the start of the pandemic last year. In 2019, 63% of consumers only listened to digital and 21% exclusively consumed physical audiobooks, but 2020 saw that jump to 72% for digital and fall to 16% for physical-only. With a third lockdown beginning in January, that rise has continued in 2021. 

At a value of nearly £200m, the pandemic has certainly seemed to have had an effect on growth—Nielsen’s consumer report estimated the market had crested £100m for the first time as recently as 2017, after hitting £99m in 2016. There is a similar trend among consumers buying audiobooks for themselves and others. In 2021, 86% of consumers bought digital audiobooks, up seven percentage points on last year, with 68% buying exclusively digital. Physical audiobook buyers fell five percentage points to 32%. Again, this was a remarkably different landscape compared to pre-pandemic 2019, when digital-only buyers hit 53% and physical-and-digital buyers were on 47%. 

Across the ages
All age groups across Nielsen’s consumer base saw a switch to digital in 2021, with every age bracket experiencing a double-digital percentage point growth in digital-only against 2018—with the exception of 18 to 24-year-olds, who rose eight percentage points to 75% digital-only. Over-35s saw the sharpest rise, with both 35 to 44-year-olds and 45 to 54-year-olds hitting 66% pure digital. The 65–84 age group outstripped its younger counterparts in the 55–64 age group, jumping 29 percentage points on 2018 (to 61% digital-only).

Audiobooks seem to have really taken the public by storm during the Covid-19 lockdowns of the past two years, with “more time during lockdown” the top reason cited for increased audiobook listening in the past 12 months—31% of respondents mentioned it. “Needed distraction during lockdown” was the third-most important reason. 
However, there were also signs audiobooks may become a fixture in consumers’ lives post-pandemic, with “easier to carry around” referenced as a reason for increased listening rising two percentage points against 2020. 

“Curiosity” was still the biggest reason for consumers to try audiobooks for the first time, with 30% of respondents mentioning it. Yet lockdown-inspired listening rose six percentage points year on year, to 12% of consumers, and 7% opted to listen for the first time as a result of learning or adopting new skills and habits during lockdown. 
Listening at home grew year on year in 2021, as more people listened to audiobooks while multitasking—as a reason for listening to audiobooks more often, it was up two percentage points on 2020, and was named as the top reason why audiobooks were “better than print”, with 45% of respondents mentioning it. However, with the nation slowly beginning the return to workplaces en masse in 2021, listening on a commute or while travelling grew on the year before, though it was still not quite back at 2018–19 levels. 

The number of new audiobook consumers continued to rise in 2021, with 45% entering the market in the past 12 months, 24% of whom were within the past six months. This was slightly down on the same point in 2020, when 48% of consumers had begun listening in the past year. 

The proportion of consumers buying audiobooks on subscription rose to 44% in 2021, with 65% of digital audiobook buyers subscribing. Almost all heavy digital audiobook buyers were subscription service users, at 90%. Consumers were most likely to buy their audiobooks through Audible (54%), with Amazon a close second on 50%. Women were more likely to plump for Audible (57%), while male consumers opted for non-Amazon retailers in higher numbers, with 21% of men buying through Google and 19% buying through Apple and Audiobooks.com. 

Adult Fiction was still the most popular genre, with 71% of consumers opting for it. The crime and thriller category was the most listened-to of all genres, at 28%, while sci-fi, fantasy and horror rose two percentage points compared to 2018. Young Adult Fiction was the seventh-most listened-to genre, on 14%, despite Children’s Fiction as a whole falling two percentage points against 2019. Non-fiction was still healthy, on 63%—a rise of six percentage points compared to two years ago, with True Crime the most popular non-fiction genre. 

Ways to discover 
Browsing audiobook websites was the number-one way of discovering audiobooks, keeping its crown from 2020 and improving three percentage points on 2018. Browsing bookseller websites was a close second. Finding recommendations from friends or relatives in-person was up three percentage points on pre-pandemic 2018, to 21%. Perhaps after lockdown restrictions ended, respondents were more likely to make the effort to meet up with people in person and discuss their new pastime. Browsing in libraries and physical bookshops were both down, however, by three and five percentage points respectively—reflecting the swing away from physical audiobooks and towards digital. 

A low-price or offer was still the top influence for buying an audiobook, though it was down two percentage points on 2018, at 31%. Familiarity with a title and the blurb jumped to third and fourth place, increasing three and five percentage points on 2018 respectively. The title being part of a series also improved—think of the dominance the Harry Potter series has on the monthly Audible charts, and more recently, the success of Richard Osman’s The Thursday Murder Club and The Man Who Died Twice. However, recommendations from retailers and extra content in the audiobook lost influence.