Analysts split over coronavirus impact on book trade future

A report by finance firm PwC predicts the coronavirus will not have a long-term impact on the book trade, but Enders Analysis has warned of the "damaging" effects of prolonged lockdown on sales, authors and indies. 

Meanwhile Outsell has noted that education publishing is likely to see a lasting digital shift.

Released this week, the PwC report titled “The likely impact of COVID-19 on the UK media industry”, provides an examination of the implications of the current lockdown and pandemic.

According to the analysis of books, subjects like education, hobbies and science are driving new purchases. However, the report acknowledges there is likely to be a slowdown in publishing new books.

It adds: “The retail channel will be impacted by store closures in light of government restrictions on movements. This may be partly compensated by ecommerce purchases (albeit non-essential logistics may be more strained in the current environment).”

The report concludes there will be a “neutral” overall impact with the trade “unlikely to see significant change from historical trends up to this point”.

Weighing up the impact on business as a whole, the firm predicts an uptick in use of video communications apps and how platforms like Zoom could provide new models for revenue.

However, at Enders Analysis, c.e.o. Douglas McCabe was far more pessimistic about the book trade's immediate future, saying the absence of bookshops was “castastrophic” and the effects would clearly be felt the longer lockdown goes on.

He told The Bookseller: “While independent bookshops are doing a brilliant job hand-delivering titles, and so reinforcing the irreplaceable role they play in local communities up and down the country, not all of them are able to get their hands on new books as easily as they would like. Some key new titles are taking a long time to reach even Amazon’s warehouses, so availability is more patchy than normal.

“We cannot ignore the industry data that shows two-thirds of book sales in bookshops are a result of browsing, while two-thirds of book sales online are for titles that people knew they wanted before shopping. Amazon’s share of the market will have gone up considerably despite pushing the books category down its inventory's hierarchy. Its support for the independent sector is welcome, but more support is required.”

He also said there was a real fear that talented writers would get lost in the chaos as titles are pushed back to later in the year and a feeling the industry was more at risk to a coming downturn than during previous recessions.

McCabe said: “The longer the lockdown goes on for the more damaging the outcome for the entire book trade will be, and we fear independent publishers and retailers are much more vulnerable in this recession than in any previous one, risking the industry’s famed plurality. In the longer term, the adage that books tend to do relatively well in the bad times should hold up, and so one would hope the industry is able to come out the other side more strongly than most of the creative industries, despite rapidly rising unemployment and consumer fears about the future.”

Meanwhile in the education market, lead analyst for education and learning at Outsell Kate Worlock said a spike in the use of digital learning tools is expected to lead to ongoing use, perhaps at the expense of print.

She pointed to the success of education firm Blackboard which saw a 3,600% increase in the usage of its virtual classroom tools in March and a 400% jump in global daily logins to its learning management system.

“We're not saying at the end of this those logins are going to persist at that level but it will be difficult to see a scenario in which there weren't some kind of boost to these digital tools,” she said. “In the K12 area the kinds of tools that we've seen tend to be the kind you can use both in a home and a school environment. So if you've got a set of class laptops you might set them certain exercises but you might use the same facility when they're doing some homework for example. We think that will be an important way of doing things because it helps to balance between in-class and remote.”

She added: “In education we've seen print falling away at a much slower rate than we've seen in other sectors. If you look at scientific journals, they're pretty much 100% digital at this point. You can buy print copies but everything is available digitally and that hasn't been the case with education, there's been a much slower move. It's arguably a more conservative audience, there can be a fundamental need to change your teaching style so it's not quite as easy to move. But because of this forced move that we think is going to bring digital usage up, the corollary is it will push print usage down. It's unlikely that schools will say 'We need a whole set of print textbooks and we're also going to buy the ancillary set of the digital equivalent'.”