No deal Brexit: Export and printing logistics are key trade concerns

Export and printing logistics have emerged as key trade concerns in the event of a no deal Brexit, with indie publishers and printers warning shipping and customs delays could bring the book trade “to a halt” if Britain leaves the European Union without an agreement. 

Customs delays to shipping physical products to Europe will be “detrimental” to the industry, according to the Publishers Association (PA) which is “actively planning” for a number of potential Brexit scenarios. Society of Authors (SoA) chief executive Nicola Solomon warned a no deal exit would be the “worst possible outcome” for the trade.

Last month, Sky News reported the government has edited every no deal technical notice – removing ‘unlikely’ from ‘in the unlikely event of no-deal’.

Short-term issues with logistics and printing are dominating the industry’s concerns with fears the UK’s trading relationship with the EU will be undermined with publishers considering when and where is best to print in light of Brexit with no clue how supply chains will be affected. 

PA chief executive Stephen Lotinga told The Bookseller: “Along with the wider business world and creative industries, we remain concerned that no-deal would bring huge challenges for publishing and therefore should be avoided. We’re obviously watching the political situation closely and will keep our members updated. Publishing companies have been actively planning for various Brexit scenarios and we have been supporting them in this – including with their preparations for a potential no-deal scenario.

“The UK’s publishing industry relies heavily on export markets, including Europe which saw a rise of 13% in physical book exports in 2017. Any customs delays to shipping physical products to Europe would be detrimental, as would any disruption to publishing supply chains. We are also concerned about the possible broader economic effects negatively impacting consumer spending and continuing to access global talent.

“We’ll continue to take every opportunity possible to feed into government Brexit planning and adapt the support and advice we offer our members as the political situation unfolds.”

SoA chief executive Solomon said a no-deal Brexit “would be the worst possible outcome for authors and the publishing industry.”

“The introduction of tariffs and customs checks at the border would undoubtedly undermine the success of our trading relationship with the EU, where 36% of the UK’s exported books are destined. This situation would be exacerbated by the serious shock to the economy that is widely predicted if we leave without a deal,” Solomon added. “One thing we do welcome is the Government’s plans to retain the current regional exhaustion framework even in the event of no deal. However this will not offset the overall damage caused by a no-deal Brexit.”

Norfolk-based indie publisher Salt Publishing said the threat to logistics in the event of a no-deal Brexit is “considerable”.

“Getting books from A to B might be considered one of the simplest things in publishing, yet it is often the most challenging. The threat to logistics of a no-deal Brexit is considerable. While distribution and print models can alleviate some pressures, the fact remains that large quantities of books are manufactured outside the UK to be shipped in, or inside the UK to be shipped out,” said publishing director Christopher Hamilton-Emery. “If transport and ports are affected by extensive delays and poor customs services, the book trade will come to a halt in the early implementation stages of Brexit. It’s a considerable worry.”

In practice there will be a major impact on how the UK sells books to Europe and Hamilton-Emery added that China could become an attractive option. He said: “In the short term, exporting to Europe will be severely impacted and customs charges will make British products less attractive in European and near-European markets. Manufacturing will present significant challenges for those printing in Europe and those printing in the UK with papers manufactured on the continent. No one will escape the problems around materials and shipping. British printers will no doubt be purchasing materials to create a buffer for this, but no one can know how long trading condition will be hit by border problems. China may well become more attractive, but publishing lead times and the just in time practices most publishers exploit will not work with the shipping times from the far east. I can’t see this providing a solution. And critical in this mix is preserving British printers, many of whom are now European owned.”

Hamilton-Emery added Salt believes a deal will ultimately prevail. He said: “Our belief from talking to colleagues in politics is that a deal is still the most likely outcome. While zealots believe in the unicorn choice, no-deal is certainly the fastest way to destroy the economy. A small business like Salt cannot affect government policy, still less political ideology, all we can do is hope that the least worst option prevails. We no longer believe that leaving is preventable.”

And his biggest concerns? “Two week turnarounds remains a key component in our manufacturing strategy, altering this would have significant impact on cash flow and on wastage – the last thing we need is more overstocks. Combating poor shipping times and any issues around the supply of materials will be challenging. We have to hope against hope that this can be ameliorated by a deal with tariff free movement of goods.”

Polish printer Interak Printing House is working closely with UK publishers to prepare for a no-deal Brexit including running tests to avoid delays at the ports of Calais and Dover, according to UK sales manager Wojtek Mijakowski. He told The Bookseller: “We will be testing new delivery channels from Poland to the UK - instead of delivery by truck that can get delayed in Calais and Dover, we will have an option to deliver magazines and books to Gdansk Port in Poland and they will be shipped in a container to the UK port that is closest to the delivery address in the UK. The goods will be picked up by a local UK transport company directly from the UK port. This will add 2-3 days to the delivery time, but it will be much more reliable.”

The printers will also be adding three additional days to delivery times. “The shipment company has offered two days warehouse storage free of charge, so if the delivery is early, we can adjust the delivery day by 2 days without additional costs,” added Mijakowski.

He warned printing prices will be higher for UK publishers as a result of a weaker pound in the event of no deal. He said: “Unfortunately, we are of the opinion that generally the prices for printing in the UK, in the EU or in China will be higher for UK publishers, as the British pound is still very weak and therefore the printers in the UK need to buy raw material for a higher price and purchases in China and in the EU cost more in the GBP.”

Curtis Brown literary agent Cathryn Summerhayes said she was worried about travel arrangements. 

She told The Bookseller: “My key concerns are about the restrictions placed on British authors travelling to events, festivals and prizes in Europe and of course Ireland if we end up with a no deal Brexit.  There seems to be a total lack of clarity on how easy it will be to travel freely as a holder of a British passport - and given that we know there is an uplift in sales if authors tour and visit the countries in which they are published, this could really affect international sales - many of the European markets are already being more cautious - will a no deal Brexit make them even more reluctant to invest in British born and British based authors?”

The concerns come after Waterstones c.e.o. James Daunt told The Bookseller “a hard Brexit will be catastrophic” in his predictions for the year. 

MPs will vote on Theresa May’s withdrawal bill on Tuesday 15th January and the Prime Minister has repeatedly ruled out extending Article 50. If the government loses, Mrs May will have just three days to come up with a plan B, after Tory MPs joined forces with Labour to defeat the Prime Minister in a vote last week.