Readers set to retreat to utopia and nostalgia in 2017

The spectre of Donald Trump and Brexit will have a big influence on book trends in 2017, publishers and agents have predicted, with opportunities in non-fiction to explore the new world politics, and “utopian” fiction acquisitions catering for those who require some escapism.

The seismic political implications of Trump being elected as US president last month, and the UK vote to leave the European Union in June will have a ripple effect on editors’ buying decisions and the public’s reading tastes, professionals in the trade have told The Bookseller.

Suzanne Baboneau, m.d. of the adult division of Simon & Schuster UK, said: “The political events of this year have got to have an effect, because of their significance. It may have a bigger impact on non-fiction—there will be much more interest in politics—but I think people will also seek comfort and escapism in fiction.”

Baboneau also speculated that books may get a boost from the fact that much of the UK population has been reading more print and online news in an eventful year, one which has been “bringing people back to the written word”.

Ed Wood, editorial director for Sphere Fiction, agreed that next year “we’ll see more of the escapist, cross-genre work” that is gripping screen audiences, citing “The Martian”, “Arrival” and “Passengers”, and backing books such as P Z Reizin’s Happiness for Humans (Sphere), as well as books set in a bygone era that dovetail with popular TV shows such as “Victoria” and “The Crown”. “After all, who wants to think about the world as it is now?” he asked.

Crime stories will also begin to be impacted by international politics, said Katherine Armstong, senior editor for crime at Bonnier Zaffre.

“What we haven’t seen yet, but might in 2018, is crime fiction looking at the consequences of Brexit,” she said. “I can think that would be coming, especially with America looking at diversity and borders.”

Armstrong, Baboneau and Wood all agreed that the popularity of psychological thrillers shows “no sign of abating”, especially following the news that The Girl on the Train author Paula Hawkins is due to bring out a second thriller (Into the Water) next May (Doubleday).

Amstrong also believes the resurgence of “cosy crime” is a reaction to the current climate. “If you look back at cosy crime and when it started, it was between the First and Second World Wars, the country was shellshocked and there was nothing to do, so people wanted that escapism,” she said. “They wanted that kind of thing where it’s all tied up neatly in a little bow by the end. I think we will see that coming back.”

Keep calm...

Baboneau also foresees a resurgence of war-time stories, with the centenary of the end of the First World War approaching (in 2019), as does David Headley, owner of the D H H Literary Agency and Goldsboro Books, who said he expected the popularity of Second World War literature to continue.

Both Headley and Kirsty Dunseath, publisher for W&N Fiction, also expect to see more “uplifting” fiction. “I think people will be looking for utopia rather than dystopia, and will have a greater desire to read escapist fiction featuring heroic acts by individuals— good versus evil, David and Goliath- type fiction—as well as uplifting novels, such as [John Boyne’s] The Heart’s Invisible Furies,” Headley said. Dunseath added: “Readers may be after that ‘feel-good’ factor. I also feel that we may see an increase in the number of books that say something about who we are and the way we live.”

Julia Silk of MBA Literary Agents said she expected to see more novels by BAME authors and writers “who don’t fit into a middle-class, conventionally educated bubble” now that the “industry is finally waking up to itself and actively looking for a multiplicity of voices that challenge and inform”. She added: “It’s not going to happen all at once, but I hope this genuinely takes root.”

On home soil

Meanwhile, the impact of the European Union membership referendum outcome is already nudging budget cookery lists into the limelight, say some non-fiction publishers, as consumers stung by the predicted rise in food prices look to tighten their belts.

Albert DePetrillo, senior editorial director at BBC Books, said: “Budget food and drink has always been a strong seller for us, but I also see it as part of a wider trend for books that reflect a post-Brexit Britain. People are embracing titles that celebrate core British values and experiences, and we’re seeing that across our list, whether it’s the thrift and can-do attitude of [Jo Scarratt- Jones’] Eat Well for Less or the wonder of [Nic Compton’s] The Shipping Forecast.”

Bluebird publisher Carole Tonkinson agreed that budget-cooking books would see a resurgence next year, along with “looking after yourself ” and children’s mental health titles. “I think politics have thrown us all for a loop of late. People are reeling and now more than ever we need to learn to take good care of ourselves: fuelling our body with good food, nourishing ourselves with ‘hygge’ and healthy hedonism, and looking after our mental health and that of our kids,” she said. “Specifically, I think the budget cookery area will benefit from the effect of Brexit on food prices. And hits on meditation sites—and our author Sharon Salzberg’s video meditations around election unrest— were through the roof.”

Yellow Kite publisher Liz Gough suggested the Brexit vote has led to a renewed appetite for living a more orderly and pared-back life, which the decluttering phenomenon continues to encapsulate, exemplified by Rachel Hoffman’s Unfuck Your Habitat (Bluebird) and Nagisa Tatsumi’s The Art of Discarding (Yellow Kite). Meanwhile, Orion non-fiction publisher Amanda Harris said that “with so much political uncertainty in the world, I am publishing more mind, body and spirit titles in 2017, particularly self-help with a spiritual element.”

While the number of people dabbling in adult colouring books has “declined” in a “saturated” market, mindfulness is “still thriving”, said publishing director Philippa Wingate at Michael O’Mara. Quercus managing director Jon Butler believes the parodies trend popularised by the Ladybird Books for Grown-Ups (Penguin) and Quercus’ Enid Blyton Five Go... series “has longer to run”. “The key is that they are gentle and old-fashioned rather than cynical and catty—warm humour for a slightly cold, uncertain world,” he said.