Supply chain 'perfect storm' sparks concern for peak pre-Christmas period

A “perfect storm” of Brexit, Covid-19 and shipping problems could lead to disruption in the peak pre-Christmas period with some publishers extending lead times on titles, moving printing to the UK and even training distribution staff as HGV drivers to mitigate the problems.

Last week, The Bookseller reported publishers including Penguin Random House and HarperCollins were braced for impacts on their distribution services due to the disruption, while retail giant Amazon showed extended wait times for some big September books.

Children’s books printed abroad are particularly being impacted, with Divia Kainth, head of sales and marketing at Sweet Cherry Publishing, telling The Bookseller the company had experienced delays from ongoing international shipping disruption, especially books coming from India.

She said: “While it's disappointing for readers, booksellers and authors when we have to push back publication dates, we've moved many printing jobs to UK printers to minimise the delay. On the bright side, it's strengthened our relationships with UK-based printers and we endeavour to work locally with them more in the future.”

Nosy Crow told a similar story. Karina Stevens, head of operations and production, said: “The freight crisis, Covid and Brexit have created an unprecedented perfect storm which has severely impacted our supply chain. We expect that it will continue to affect our ability to supply as well as our margins for the next six months.”

She said the publisher had built in “additional buffers” to lead times and had to “bite the bullet on increased costs”, but praised suppliers for being “immensely supportive and agile”.

On the distribution side, Hachette UK said last week it was going as far as training members of its distribution team to become HGV drivers to combat a nationwide shortage affecting all industries, as well as moving production closer to the UK where possible, and printing earlier and for greater coverage to ensure availability of key lines.

A spokesperson said: “With regard to distribution, as publishers take steps to increase stock holding by bringing in stock earlier for Q4, we are also seeing customers ordering earlier. By taking these steps, parties are adding extra time into the supply chain and this is the best way to protect sales and to minimise stress on the supply chain. However, a combination of these factors has resulted in Hachette Distribution experiencing peak volumes earlier than usual. As a result, we are ramping up to peak resourcing levels, including the night shift.

“In terms of HGV driver shortages, we are balancing deliveries across a number of transport providers and as part of our social mobility ‘warehouse to wheels’ programme and a number of our distribution team members are in the process of becoming HGV drivers.”

GMC Distribution said it was experiencing delays of new titles being shipped from the Far East and also of stock from its client publishers in the US. A spokesperson said: “All delivery times are at least double the norm and both printing and shipping costs have escalated, too. In a very few cases, we have switched printing to the UK or Europe, and this is something we will be looking at more going forward.

“We then have the issue of lack of warehouse staff and lorry drivers, caused by Brexit. Our distributors, Orca Book Services, are trying their best but there just aren’t enough staff for all the jobs. I can only see this problem increasing as more demands are put on the supply chain heading into the peak period.

“Our sales are very good at that moment, reflecting the continued popularity of books in general and the massive growth in our key categories — art and craft, children’s and mind, body and spirit, for example — in particular, but they would be even better if we had improved stock levels.”

Bookspeed said it had seen “record sales” over the last three months and it is anticipating its busiest Christmas ever but agreed this brought its own problems. “Given the delays we are already experiencing in receiving stock, we expect the situation to become increasingly challenging over the next couple of months,” a spokesperson told The Bookseller.

Paul Hulley, c.e.o. at printing firm Clay’s, said his company had been working with hauliers Knights of Old to address driver shortages and ensure the maximum contingency is in place. “So far, we have been able to mitigate the impact with reasonable success,” he said. “It’s sometimes a big stretch behind the scenes, but the books are on the road to all destinations; and our well-integrated delivery arrangements into Amazon continue to work well.”

On the retail side, the Booksellers Association (BA) said booksellers are "starting to get nervous" around the delays. M.d. Meryl Halls said: "After a year and a half of system shocks and disruption, and after an unexpectedly bullish summer sales period, high street bookshops want to continue into the final quarter with certainty that the great books being published will be available. UK and Irish consumers have proven that they want to buy books, and our bookshops are certainly poised ready to sell them those books, and we need to ensure that the books supply chain is functioning.

"The BA, through its work with the British Retail Consortium and other retail bodies, is all too aware of the massive pressure on the wider retail supply chain, with driver shortages, Brexit impacts and Covid limitations creating a perfect storm of challenges.

“Booksellers are starting to get nervous, given how crucial this Christmas period will be to this year’s bottom line for the high street sector and for future viability, and the BA will be in touch with publishers and distributors over the coming weeks to ensure booksellers’ needs and views are clearly understood. And it goes without saying that booksellers appreciate all the efforts that go into the smooth running of the supply chain by our logistics partners. If the pandemic has taught us anything, it’s how inter-connected and mutually dependent we are.”

Beccy Preece, logistics director at Waterstones said the chain has “significantly” increased stock levels in shops and its distribution centre to ensure it has sufficient stock for Christmas.

“We learnt from last year and are confident that we are well prepared for what we expect to be a busy Christmas. Of course, longer lead times on books published close to Christmas, particularly those printed abroad, could cause us problems later in the year.

“We do, however, recognise the driver shortages and subsequent issues as a result of driver shortages caused by the pandemic and Brexit, so we are working through possible strategies for the short, medium and long-term. These include delivery consolidation, delivery windows, driver facilities and supply chain alignment.”

Waterstones m.d. James Daunt said that while the retailer is "concerned" and taking remedial action, supply chain issues for books may be overstated. He told The Bookseller: “I think the nature of bookselling, which is you order well in advance and you have relatively low stock terms compared to other sectors, means that to translate problems supermarkets are having, or car manufacturers are having, on to the world of books, is to exaggerate.”

He added: “The only problems that we can see are the ones that you always have, which is that you make mistakes and you don’t identify what sells and you under-order, or there are surprise bestsellers, and then there’s a question of what the speed of resupply is going to be...You make your bets, the books are in your warehouse, and if you screw up you’re not going to have the books on sale.”

He continued: “Clearly imports are going to be slower, Brexit impacts that, port congestion impacts that, and we’re obviously going to have all that, but the publishers work so far ahead that we haven’t seen any indication that things are seriously awry from what they always are.”

A spokesperson for Blackwell's also noted this time of year is nearly always “challenging. A number of publishers have begun to inform us that we may be able to expect some issues, but we are working hard in partnership with publishers to do the very best we can for our customers,” they said.